// the core principle#
A good signal answers three questions: what, why, and when. The market identifier answers what. The thesis answers why. The horizon + max entry + catalyst date answer when.
If you can't articulate the why in 1–2 sentences, the signal isn't ready. Skip it. Subscribers are picky — they'll follow callers whose theses they can replay.
// thesis discipline#
Lead with the catalyst. 'Fed cuts in June' — what specific event are you anticipating? Vague signals ('feels overpriced') resolve at 50% expected hit rate regardless of caller skill.
State the edge in a single sentence. 'Polls are 3 points wider than the market is pricing' is concrete. 'I just have a feeling' isn't.
Include the invalidation. What single data point, if it happened, would make you exit? Writing this down forces you to think clearly + gives subscribers a concrete stop-out reference.
Keep it under 400 characters. The Discord embed truncates at ~700; aim shorter. Long theses lose readers — the people who'll act on your signal are scanning, not reading.
// calibrating confidence#
Low — informational. You'd take it personally with small size; you're not surprised if subscribers skip. Use this freely.
Med — decent edge, normal sizing. The most common conviction level. Default to this unless you have specific reason to go higher.
High — strong edge, max sizing. Reserve for signals where you've done the work, the market has clearly mispriced, and you'd put your own capital behind it.
Inflated confidence is the fastest way to lose subscribers. If 30% of your signals are 'high' and your hit rate at 'high' isn't above your other levels, subscribers notice.
// when to use urgent#
Urgent · DM all FNF bypasses quiet hours and DMs every FNF member, not just your followers. It's the loudest notification mode Sage has.
Use sparingly: a verifiable, time-sensitive catalyst (e.g. 'CPI prints in 90 minutes, market is mispriced by 5 points'). Never use for 'I think this is going to move' — that's what your regular DM channel is for.
Subscribers can mute urgent-from-you specifically. Repeated false alarms get you muted permanently by people who'd otherwise have followed your less-loud signals.
// the boring habits that compound#
Settle losses publicly. If you fired a signal that resolves against you, post a brief 'closed at X, here's what I missed.' The dashboard auto-tracks the PnL, but the audience values the meta-commentary on the miss.
Don't chase your own signals. Posting a second signal on the same market within an hour because the first one moved looks like manipulation. Update via thread reply on the original instead.
Tag thoughtfully. The tag picker on /caller/new (politics / elections / sports / crypto / macro / weather / biz / tech / other) is how subscribers filter — wrong tags pollute someone else's feed.