// the high-level split#
Polymarket and Kalshi look similar in the dashboard — both are prediction markets, both have YES/NO contracts. Under the hood they're very different. The decision of which to use depends on where you live, what you trade, and how comfortable you are with on-chain rails.
// regulation + jurisdiction#
Polymarket — decentralized, on Polygon. No KYC for trade execution. Geofenced via IP at the venue's UI — US users are blocked from the official front-end. Many users access via VPN or directly via the on-chain protocol, but be aware of your jurisdiction.
Kalshi — CFTC-regulated US exchange. Full KYC required. US-resident eligible; many countries blocked. The venue's UI handles all KYC + funding flows.
Sage doesn't help you bypass geofencing. If a venue won't serve you, the deep-link will load the venue's blocked page; the dashboard is not in that loop.
// rails + settlement#
Polymarket — USDC on Polygon. Funding via on-chain transfer or via Polymarket's USDC.cm bridge. Settles via UMA's optimistic oracle (human-proposed, dispute window).
Kalshi — fiat (USD via ACH or wire). Funding through your linked bank account. Settles via published data sources (official government releases, sports scoreboards, etc.).
Polymarket settlement is slightly slower (1–24h after the event, factoring in the dispute window). Kalshi settles within minutes of the data source updating.
// market coverage#
Polymarket — broad. Politics (heavy weight), macro, crypto, sports, novel topics ('will X tweet between Y and Z'). Permissionless market creation means an extremely long tail.
Kalshi — curated. Macro (CPI, Fed, jobs), elections, sports, weather, business events. Each market is reviewed before it lists, so the catalog is smaller but more legible.
If you're calling the Fed: both have it. If you're calling sports: both have it. If you're calling something niche or fast-moving: Polymarket is usually first.
// fees + execution mechanics#
Polymarket — no per-trade fee. 2% cut at settlement on the winning side. Order book; orders can be limit or market.
Kalshi — per-trade fee that varies by market (typically 1–4%). Settles into your account immediately on resolution.
Both round to whole-cent prices. Slippage is the practical cost on both — for fills above ~$1K, the spread on a thin market can move several cents against you.
// which venue you'll see on Sage#
The venue filter chip on /signals + /markets + /whales toggles. The signal stream is venue-mixed by default; click PM or KX to narrow. Each row's vn tag tells you which venue at a glance (brand-violet pill for PM, green pill for KX).
Callers typically fire on whichever venue has the market they want; some markets exist on both, in which case you can pick by your jurisdiction + rail preference.