// what is a prediction market#
A prediction market is a venue where people buy and sell contracts that pay out based on whether a real-world event happens. Every contract has a YES side and a NO side. If the event happens, the YES side gets $1 per share. If it doesn't, the NO side gets $1 per share.
Polymarket and Kalshi are the two venues Sage tracks. The mechanics are the same on both, even though they're regulated very differently.
Example: 'Will the Fed cut rates in June 2026?' is a single market with a YES share and a NO share. If the Fed cuts, anyone holding YES gets $1 per share; if they don't, anyone holding NO gets $1 per share.
// why prices are probabilities#
A YES share trading at 32¢ means the market collectively thinks there's roughly a 32% chance the event happens. The price is the implied probability — it has to be, because the share pays out $1 if YES, $0 if NO.
If you think the real probability is 50% but the market says 32¢, you have an edge of about 18 cents per share. That's what callers mean when they say 'edge' — the gap between their view and the market's.
The YES and NO sides always sum to roughly $1.00 (minus venue fees + slippage). If you see YES @ 32¢, NO is roughly @ 68¢.
// how the trade works mechanically#
You don't bet against the house — you buy a contract from another trader. Every YES share you hold is matched by a NO share someone else holds. The venue is the order book + the settlement engine, not the counterparty.
When you 'buy YES at 32¢,' you're paying 32¢ now for a contract that's worth $1 if YES resolves true and $0 if false. Your max loss is the 32¢. Your max profit is 68¢ per share.
You can sell your shares before resolution at whatever the current market price is — you don't have to hold to settlement.
// settlement#
When the event resolves (the Fed announces, the election is called, the game ends), the venue marks the market resolved and pays out. YES holders get $1 per share if the event happened; NO holders get $1 per share if it didn't.
Polymarket settles via UMA's optimistic oracle — humans propose the outcome, anyone can dispute within a window. Kalshi settles based on the contract's published data source (e.g. an official government release).
Settlement typically lands within minutes to a few hours of the event. The realized PnL on a Sage signal updates once the venue confirms the outcome.
// fees and slippage#
Polymarket charges no per-trade fee but takes a 2% cut at settlement on the winning side.
Kalshi takes a per-trade fee that varies by market — typically 1–4% of the trade size.
Slippage is the cost of moving the market with your order. Small trades on a deep market have near-zero slippage; large trades on a thin market can move the price several cents against you. Sage's signals usually include a 'max entry' price so subscribers know the caller's pain point.
Both venues round to whole-cent prices. There's no 32.4¢ tick.
// where to go next#
reading-a-signal—every column of a signal row explained in plain language.
trading-flow—how to actually act on a signal from the dashboard.
polymarket-vs-kalshi—the differences (KYC, USDC vs cash rails, geofencing, market types).
glossary—every term you'll see (bps, edge, mark, mtm, etc.).